The Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted Texas’s Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” signaling momentum for Rep. Colin Allred’s (D) challenge against incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in the red state. 

Jessica Taylor, the forecaster’s Senate and gubernatorial editor, said Allred’s fundraising and ad spending, coupled with Cruz being on defense on abortion and a trip the senator took to Cancun during a severe winter storm in 2021, have helped Democrats in the state.

But Taylor also said the state will still be tough for Democrats to flip in November. 

Democrats have increasingly set their sights on Texas, as well as Florida, this cycle. Last week the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) announced a multimillion dollar investment in television advertising in the two red-leaning states.

“Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on offense,” DSCC Chair Gary Peters (D-Mich.) said. “All cycle long the DSCC has been preparing to take advantage of Sens. Cruz and Scott’s damaged standings in their states – and now our efforts in Texas and Florida are accelerating. Democrats have strong candidates running effective campaigns in both states, and as we escalate our communications against Sens. Cruz and Scott we will crystallize the case against them.”

Overall, the Senate map is tilted in Republicans’ favor, with the GOP likely only needing to take down incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in deep red Montana to capture the chamber. The Hill and Decision Desk HQ forecaster predicts Republicans have a 70 percent chance of winning the Senate. 

While Tuesday’s ratings change is certainly welcome news for the Allred campaign, he will still face an uphill challenge against Cruz. The latest The Hill Decision Desk HQ average shows Cruz leading Allred by just under three points. Cruz won his last reelection bid against former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) by 2.6 points.