A series of turbulent events have left Democrats feeling hopeful but anxious a month out from November’s elections, with races for the House and White House too close to call.
The volatile political environment — combined with razor-tight races in battleground states and districts around the country — have put many Democrats on edge in the final stretch to Election Day.
“I don’t take anything for granted,” said Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), head of the House Democrats’ messaging arm. “We’ve got to focus, we’ve got work to do, and if we take our eye off the ball [we won’t win].”
Fires at home and abroad are fueling new anxieties for the party.
Hurricane Helene cut a path of destruction across parts of the South this week, creating a massive humanitarian crisis while testing the Biden-Harris administration’s powers of emergency response. And overseas, Israel’s war on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon — and Iran’s retaliatory missile attack Tuesday — have heightened the prospects that the deadly conflict will only escalate further in the weeks ahead.
Democrats got some welcome news Thursday and Friday, first when the dockworkers on the East and Gulf coasts agreed, after just two days, to suspend a strike that had shut down some of the nation’s largest ports and threatened to hurt consumers just before the elections.
They’re also cheering the arrival of the Labor Department’s new jobs report, which revealed that 254,000 jobs were created in September, vastly exceeding expectations. And they’re thrilled with a new analysis from the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, that shifted five House seats toward Democrats on Friday.
Rep. Suzan DelBene (Wash.), head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, noted Friday that the DCCC has a $16 million cash advantage over the GOP’s campaign arm heading into the last month of the race, which has allowed party strategists to expand the map in their quest to flip the chamber.
“In this final month of the election, the DCCC is on offense across the battlefield, and we are very well positioned to reclaim the House majority,” DelBene told reporters on a press call.
Still, the accumulation of tumultuous events in a month known for its political surprises also has everyone on edge, particularly given the tightness of the race and the high stakes of the results. In the eyes of Democrats, that means keeping former President Trump from winning a second term.
Polls from around the country reveal outcomes that are too close to call in both the presidential battle — where Trump and Vice President Harris are in a horse race for the seven battleground states that will decide the contest — and the duel for the House, where the parties are fighting furiously over the few dozen competitive seats that will dictate who controls the gavel next year.
“We know that this election will come down to the margins, and we’re not taking any vote for granted,” Jaime Harrison, head of the Democratic National Committee, told reporters Friday.
Hurricane Helene has created several potential challenges for Democrats heading into Nov. 5. The massive storm hit two of the seven presidential battlegrounds — North Carolina and Georgia — and the degree of devastation will test the administration’s relief efforts, at risk of alienating some voters if those efforts are seen to fall short.
The damage will also pose logistical complications as party operatives seek to maximize voter turnout in a region where entire towns have been washed away. Harrison on Friday said he’s already been in touch with Democratic officials in North Carolina, who are prepping plans to employ “mobile voting apparatuses and other things” to allow storm victims to vote. He also said he intends to reach out to the head of the Republican National Committee about ensuring voter empowerment, and he pointed to statements by North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who has vowed to make voting access a priority.
“He understands that we have an important election coming up,” Harrison said of Cooper, “[so] he wants to make sure that every voter in that region gets the opportunity to have their voices heard and not be disenfranchised because of the disaster.”
Yet North Carolina is not the only battleground state caught up in the turmoil of current events. Michigan is seen as crucial to the Democrats’ chances of keeping the White House. And with two “toss-up” House seats in play, the Great Lakes State could also be pivotal in deciding which party controls the lower chamber next year.
Michigan has an outsized Muslim population, and many of those voters are furious with the Biden administration’s support for Israel amid a soaring death toll of Palestinians in Gaza. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), the only Palestinian American in Congress, had joined the “uncommitted” movement when Biden was still on the ticket, and she has so far declined to endorse Harris.
Harris has adopted a different tone from Biden when it comes to the conflict, but has not signaled a material break in strategy. And party leaders declined to allow a Palestinian doctor to speak at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August, infuriating many Muslim voters, some of whom are vowing to withhold their support for Harris in November.
The outrage has complicated the Democrats’ path to winning Michigan — and with it, the White House.
“I feel good about flipping the House, I’m worried about Michigan,” Dingell said.
Rep. Dan Kildee, another Michigan Democrat, is sounding a similar warning. He said Democrats can win the state if they can entice their base voters to participate. But that, he said, remains a challenge.
“Michigan’s going to be tough. It’s a tough state, always is,” Kildee said. “I do think we have superior candidates when it comes to the House races, so that makes a huge difference. And clearly the same is true in the Senate and White House race.
“But it’s a toss-up state. It’s going to come down to turn out.”
The presidential contenders are well aware of the importance of Michigan in the contest.
Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), the GOP’s vice presidential nominee, swept through the Great Lakes State on Wednesday to rally voters. Trump visited on Thursday. Harris followed on Friday. And earlier in the week, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), Harris’s running mate, participated in a get-out-the-vote event targeting Muslim Americans. His message aimed to appeal to those voters put off by the Biden administration’s approach to the Middle East conflict.
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